Strong and stable covfefe

2017 in review

Take a look at any look-back at this year's events and it would be easy to conclude that 2017 was a stinker.  But I'd like to throw in some optimism and suggest that maybe it wasn't such a bad year after all.

Okay, okay... there's the Trump thing, not to mention North Korea.  And Brexit is going about as well as can be expected.  Then there was the fall from grace of my one-time hero Aung San Suu-Kyi.  Not forgetting [insert your pet political grumble here].  I get it.  But hear me out.  Mugabe is no longer in power (granted that Mnangagwa may not be much better, but still), Zuma no longer leads the ANC (and hence, hopefully, will soon no-longer loot lead South Africa), UKIP has all but disappeared and Steps went on tour again.  Personally, it was quite a good year too.  I built a staircase and obtained my reindeer drivers' license (seriously).

Oh, and I became a father.

That's right... whatever the doom-peddlers may say, 2017 was a good year as the world welcomed this little bundle:

It gives an opportunity to put things in perspective.  Let me take you back to the early hours a September Friday morning...

I'm just in bed, having been sent away from the hospital as a spare part, when the phone rings.  This is it: the moment.  It was hard to make out the exact instruction through all the screams and profanities, but the gist was something like 'make haste to the labour suite'.

As I arrive and try to accept the reality of the situation, before I have the chance to do anything, the midwife calls me over to the side to warn me that already things are not looking straightforward.  There is a problem with baby's heartbeat, and a range of scenarios could ensue.

She takes me through her scenario-planning: if x happens, then y could happen, so we better do z just in case.  Then again, if a happens, we'd have to do b so I'm going to prepare c just in case.  Then again, d, e and f might all happen, and that would spell real trouble, so I've got g and h standing by.

"Do you play chess?" I ask her, hoping that levity will relieve the gravity of the situation.  "If you don't, you should."

The clock ticks forward, and more and more complicated pieces of monitoring equipment are attached and inserted as a stream of medics visit, look at the graphs and suck in through their teeth like a mechanic who is about to tell you the cylinder head has gone.  The various alarms and people racing from the room suggest there are several emergencies on the go at once.

"I've called in the on-call surgeon, just in-case," says the chess-playing midwife.  "And I've asked the Sick Kids to send out a paediatric emergency team."

It all sounds very serious, yet no-one is worried because this midwife appears to be super-woman.  There is surely no possible scenario she hasn't got a plan for.

In comes a consultant to look at the monitor, and before we know what's going on, everyone is whisked away down a labyrinth of corridors to theatre, and I'm thrown some scrubs to change in to.  It's all very ER.

Thirteen people it took to bring this one little life into the world: nine midwives, surgeons, anaesthetists and others in theatre, and two paediatric emergency doctors stood with me at the side.  In the end, they aren't needed, as the moment he's delivered, he's as healthy a baby as they've seen.  We all share a moment of gratitude that everything is well, thanks to this 13-strong medical team brought together by the chess-playing midwife.

It's hard not to think back to that night.  The harsh reality is that at any earlier time in history, mother and/or baby may not have survived this ordeal.  The harsher reality is that in most other parts of the world, such a team of specialists would be unaffordable, if available at all.

That we still, over 50 years later, have a National Health Service, free at the point of need, that can perform these most miraculous of acts daily is something for which we should be most grateful.  2017's not been so bad after all, has it?

It's time to take an interest (again)

If you are of a certain age, I'd be willing to bet you did your part in the anti-apartheid campaign.  Maybe you boycotted South African apples, moved money out of South African-linked investments or filled the cleverly re-named Nelson Mandela Place in a protest march.  Perhaps you watched the 'Free Mandela' concert from Wembley, bought the song by The Specials or signed a petition to keep South African cricketers out of the UK.  In lots of small ways, the people of the UK came together and condemned this crime against humanity.

If, like me, you're a little too young to be involved in all of that, then perhaps your seminal memories involve watching Nelson Mandela walk through the gates of Victor Verster Prison to freedom, or seeing him sworn in as South Africa's first democratically elected president, or watching him work his magic at the 1995 Rugby World Cup final, or hearing the accounts at the Truth & Reconciliation Commission... I could go on.

The fact is, that for several decades, the UK - and Scotland in particular - was caught up in the fight of black South Africans for their emancipation.  We followed their struggle, did what little we could to help and then rejoiced as the miracle of the "rainbow nation" unfolded.

Here's the thing, though: the time has come for us to get stuck in again.  The miracle has been coming undone.  Through a corrupt and reckless president, the last decade has seen the lives of ordinary South Africans plunged into despair, racial tensions re-stoked and Mandela's legacy trashed.  Desmond Tutu has described it as "worse than the apartheid government" - at least we would have expected it of them, he cries.  And yet, we in the UK are paying no interest.  But we should be...

Most people are shocked and stunned by Donal Trump's disinformation campaigns and use of "fake news" as propaganda to further his narrow cause, but on another continent, one Jacob G. Zuma has been doing the very same since he seized power at the 2007 ANC conference through what courts have now shown to be lies and deceit.  He engineered the removal of Thabo Mbeki as president of the country and established for himself a patronage network that has in the process destroyed parliament, cabinet, the Treasury, the Revenue Service, the police, the prosecutions service and the rule of law.  He has ensured that he and his network get richer, while the poor get poorer.  And the price to maintain this power?  Re-igniting the racial divisions of the past that Mandela's generation worked so hard to overcome.

Why should this matter to us?  Why should we again take up the cause?  The answer is simple: this is all being made possible because of UK companies.

British PR company Bell Pottinger masterminded a campaign blaming South Africa's woes on "white monopoly capital" and gave Zuma the racial narrative he was looking for.  As they profited from sowing division, we in the UK turned a blind eye.  (Since this was uncovered, Bell Pottinger has gone into administration - http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41245719.)

KPMG was then found to have been involved in lending legitimacy to the regime and its associates through what it admits were "deficiencies" in its auditing of accounts associated with Zuma which "fell considerably short" of the required standards.  (More here: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/sep/15/bell-pottinger-fallout-deepens-kpmg-chiefs-south-africa.)

The Serious Fraud Office is investigating the use of HSBC and Standard Chartered accounts to launder money.  (See http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41672793.)  Peter Hain has claimed that HSBC ignored warnings that this was going on (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41835937).  He also claims that Barclays and Santander need to check whether they have had any accounts used (https://www.fin24.com/Economy/british-peer-calls-for-london-based-bank-accounts-of-soes-to-be-investigated-20171206).

I could go on at some length...

The point is that 10 years before Trump burst on to the scene, JZ was using the same tactics in another hemisphere.  The UK has become bound up in his network of corruption and propaganda, and its time that we, who took such an interest in the anti-apartheid movement - did something about it to safeguard the freedoms secured by the Mandela generation.

But what could we do?  Rock concerts and apple boycotts won't achieve much this time round.  But we could investigate whether the companies we have money in have any links to Zuma or his associates the Guptas, and move it if they do.  We could lobby our foreign office to take a tougher stance against the stoking of racial tensions for personal gain.  But most importantly, we could take an interest.  During the days of apartheid, South Africans drew strength for their struggle from knowing that millions across the world stood in solidarity with them.  They need to know the same now.  So lets inform ourselves (start by watching these episodes of HARDtalk: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/search?q=hardtalk south africa&search_group_id=urn:bbc:programmes:b006mg2m) and take an interest once again.


P.S. The ANC conference to elect Zuma's successor begins tomorrow.  The two leading candidates are Zuma's ex-wife Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma and Nelson Mandela's favoured choice as his own successor, Cyril Ramaphosa.  It would seem that the best hope to reclaim the principles of democracy would be a Ramaphosa victory.  Watch with interest...

European Venn Diagram

European Parliament Visitor Centre

A number of years ago, I visited the European Parliament in Brussels.  They have an excellent visitor centre which explains the history and current status of European institutions in as dynamic a manner as possible.

Before visiting, I don't think I had realised just how complex the European settlement is.  I tended only to think of "The EU" and was perhaps vaguely cognisant of the terms "Council of Europe" and "Single Market", but hadn't given any thought as to how the whole thing fits together.  I think the same is true of most of us - we think of the mythical beast that is "Brussels" rather than its web of complex associations.

The truth is that Europe is a hotch-potch of  treaties and diplomatic agreements, and different countries have joined in - or not - as suits their circumstances. 

Take, for example, the Eurozone.  Most EU member states have joined in, but the UK, along with eight other members, has not.  Then there's the Shengen Agreement, allowing borderless travel, which has been signed up to by all but six member states, along with five non-member states.  Then there's Cyprus and Ireland who're in the Euro but not in Schengen.  But Monaco is in Schengen, but not in the EU.  And it mints the Euro but is not in the Eurozone.  Like San Marino - though that is not in Schengen.  But it is in the Customs Union.

This is all before we've even considered the rival body to the EU - the European Free Trade Area (EFTA).  Membership of each is mutually exclusive.  EFTA members are currently Iceland, Lichtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.  They're all in Schengen, and three of the 4 have joined all of the EU in the European Economic Area, or Single Market.  But Switzerland hasn't.  It is in EFTA and Shengen, but not the EEA.  And I've not even mentioned the Central European Free Trade Area or the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe, which has such famously European members as the USA and Canada.

This could become very complicated to explain.  What's that, you say?  You're crying out for a Venn diagram?  I am only too happy to oblige:

The UK has voted to leave the inner orange section of the diagram.  The question is where we end up.  It seems to me that there are four possible locations for Britain once we leave the EU, as indicated on the diagram in increasing degrees of separation from the EU:

1. This would see us defect from the EU to EFTA and staying inside the Single Market, but unlike the other countries with this deal, we would remain outside the Schengen area.  This is often referred to as the "Norway" model.

2. The "Switzerland" model, we would leave the EEA, but through membership of EFTA would still have relatively free access to trade.

3. This would see us leave the EEA but remain in the EU Customs Union.  Looking at the other bed-fellows in this position, I'm not sure the "Turkey" model or "Andorra" model have quite the same appeal as Norway or Switzerland.

4. This seems to be the position the government are aiming for - outside of the EU, EEA and Customs Union.  Again, though, my eyes are drawn to the other states in the same section of the diagram.  Does any of these countries have an economic model or trading relationship we want to emulate?  Albania, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Georgia, Macedonia, Moldova, Montenegro, Russia, Serbia, Ukraine.

I haven't even considered complications such as the need for a common travel area with Ireland.  Perhaps, as is so often the European way, a new circle will be drawn at the eleventh hour.  But if option four is where we are headed, we cannot continue to ignore the economic and political reality of becoming a European outsider.

Funeral Politics

My granny held very firmly to the manta that money, politics and sex were not things to be openly discussed, and it would be a tremendous faux pas if any of them reared their head at as public an occasion as a funeral.  In fact, as anyone with any experience of planning or leading a funeral will know, there is often a lot of time and energy spent on ensuring that politics - including intra-family politics - doesn't raise its head.  Even the most outspoken of political speakers would agree that it would be disrespectful to use a memorial service as a platform for political rallying.

All of this might be true in a privileged Western context, but in many societies, funerals offer the only opportunity for resistance to oppression.  This was very much the case during apartheid South Africa.  With political gatherings, town hall meetings, liberation movements and most political parties banned by an increasingly authoritarian government, funerals were one of the only mass gatherings still permitted by law.  And so, the funeral became the place from which the freedom struggle rallied its troops. 

This was not in the least bit disrespectful to the deceased, in fact it often carried out their direct wishes.  The funeral as a political rally was seen as keeping alive the spirit of the departed.  If you've never seen the film Cry Freedom, take a look at the scene from Steve Biko's funeral to get a feel for what these occasions were like:

Of course, this type of scene has not been seen since the fall of apartheid twenty-seven years ago.  Until, that is, the events of this week...

Followers of my blog may have noted the corruption that exists within President Jacob Zuma's South Africa, with government influence and cash going to the wealthy Gupta brothers.  The main stumbling block to this 'State Capture' was the diligent and incorruptible Minister of Finance Pravin Gordhan.  Zuma has been trying for over a year to find a way to get Gordhan out of the way - he's even had him arrested on trumped-up charges.

This week, Zuma signalled he was going to simply go for the nuclear option and fire Gordhan without reason.  As Gordhan landed in London on Monday for meetings with investors, Zuma summoned him home and it was clear a replacement was being lined up.

Then, on Tuesday, stalwart of the freedom struggle and fellow prisoner of Nelson Mandela, Ahmed Kathrada, died.  As a Muslim, he had to be buried the next day, and his burial service on Wednesday quickly became a political rally against Zuma's plans - the family said Zuma was not welcome, Gordhan was given a standing ovation, former President Kgalema Motlanthe quoted Kathrada's own call for Zuma to step down.  Nonetheless, a full state memorial for Kathrada was planned for today in Soweto.

At midnight on Thursday, Zuma fired Gordhan, his deputy and every other minister who had ever disagreed with them.  The ANC made clear that it did not support its own President in this.  At the same time, the presidency callously cancelled the state memorial for Kathrada, fearing it would be too political.

So, the Ahmed Kathrada and Nelson Mandela Foundations held their own memorial today, attended by as diverse a crowd as South Africa has ever seen, and what a gathering it was!  Christian prayer opened a Muslim funeral, the Communist Party and business leaders called on one another for support, and the ANC writ large called on its own President to resign.

Many have criticised the funeral as being too political and disrespectful, but it was continuing the debate that 'Uncle Kathy' had himself begun a year ago.  Watch, for example, the address by Kathrada's widow, Barbara Hogan:

The event was filled with the anti-apartheid cries of "Amandla! Awethu!"  (Power! To the people!) and "The people shall govern!"  Freedom songs were sung, Kathrada and Mandela's legacy called upon and it culminated in an address from Gordhan himself, "unashamedly" calling for mass mobilisation of the people against a corrupt and securocratic regime:

Perhaps a political funeral was Uncle Kathy's parting gift to South Africa.  It certainly engendered a mood of optimism that justice will prevail, and united South African's of all backgrounds in a way that we've not seen since the times of Madiba.